Selected Publications

Krocak, M.J., Ripberger, J.T., Ernst, S., Silva, C.L, Jenkins-Smith, H.C., 2021: Exploring the differences in SPC convective outlook interpretation using categorical and numeric information, Weather and Forecasting. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0123.1

Rosen, Z., Krocak, M.J., Ripberger, J.T., Cross, R., Lenhardt, E., Silva, C.L, Jenkins-Smith, H.C., 2021: Communicating probability information in hurricane forecasts: Assessing statements that forecasters use on social media and implications for public assessments of reliability. J. Operational Meteor, 9, 7, 89-101, https://doi.org/10.15191/nwajom.2021.0907

Krocak, M. J. and H. E. Brooks, 2021: The Influence of Weather Watch Type on the Quality of Tornado Warnings and its Implications for Future Forecasting Systems. Weather and Forecasting. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0052.1

Krocak, M. J., J. N. Allan, J. T. Ripberger, C. L. Silva, and H. C. Jenkins-Smith, 2021: An analysis of tornado warning reception and response across time: leveraging respondent’s confidence and a nocturnal tornado climatology. Weather and Forecasting. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0207.1 

Allan, J. N., Ripberger, J. T., Wehde, W., Krocak, M. J., Silva, C. L., & Jenkins‐Smith, H. C., 2020: Geographic distributions of extreme weather risk perceptions in the United States. Risk analysis. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13569.

Krocak, M. J., J. T. Ripberger, C. L. Silva, and H. C. Jenkins-Smith, 2020: Thinking Outside the Polygon: A Study of Tornado Warning Reception Outside of Warning Polygon Bounds. Nat. Hazards, 102, 1351–1368, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-03970-5.

Lenhardt, E. D., R. N. Cross, M. J. Krocak, J. T. Ripberger, S. R. Ernst, C. L. Silva, and H. C. Jenkins-Smith, 2020: How Likely is That Chance of Thunderstorms? A Study of How National Weather Service Forecast Offices Use Words of Estimative Probability and What They Mean to the Public. J. Operational Meteorology, 8, 64–78, https://doi.org/10.15191/nwajom.2020.0805.

Ripberger, J. T., C. Silva, H. Jenkins-Smith, J. Allan, M. J. Krocak, W. Wehde, and S. Ernst, 2020: Exploring Community Differences in Tornado Warning Reception, Comprehension, and Response Across the United States. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0064.1.

Krocak, M. J., and H. E. Brooks, 2020: An Analysis of Subdaily Severe Thunderstorm Probabilities for the United States. Wea. Forecasting, 35, 107–122, ­ https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-19-0023.1

Krocak, M. J., J. T. Ripberger, C. L. Silva, and H. C. Jenkins-Smith, 2019: The Impact of Hours of Advance Notice on Protective Action in Response to Tornadoes. Wea. Climate Soc., 11, 881–888, ­ https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-19-0023.1

Ripberger, J. T., M. J. Krocak, W. W. Wehde, J. N. Allan, C. Silva, and H. Jenkins-Smith, 2019: Measuring Tornado Warning Reception, Comprehension, and Response in the United States. Wea. Climate Soc., 11, 863–880, https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-19-0015.1

Krocak, M. J., and H. E. Brooks, 2018: Climatological Estimates of Hourly Tornado Probability for the United States. Wea. Forecasting, 33, 59–69, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-17-0123.1

Selected Presentations

M. J. Krocak, S. Ernst, J. T. Ripberger, C. Silva, and H. Jenkins-Smith: Forecast Information Type across Time: What do People Want and Need? 102nd AMS Annual Meeting, January, 2022, virtual.

M. J. Krocak, S. Ernst, and J. T. Ripberger: Exploring the differences in SPC convective outlook interpretation using categorical and numeric information. 101st AMS Annual Meeting, January, 2021, virtual. Watch here.

** M. J. Krocak and H. E. Brooks: Developing and Testing Watch-Scale Forecast Products in the FACETs Paradigm. 98th AMS Annual Meeting, January, 2018, Austin, Texas. Watch here.

M. J. Krocak and J. T. Ripberger: A Difference in the Details: Assessing the Impact of Demographic Differences on Tornado Warning Comprehension, Reception, and Response. 98th AMS Annual Meeting, January, 2018, Austin, Texas. Watch here.

M. J. Krocak and H. E. Brooks: Sub-daily Severe Weather Climatology and its Implications on Forecasting. 28th Conference on Severe Local Storms, November, 2016, Portland, Oregon. Watch here.

Selected Posters

**M. J. Krocak , S. Ernst, J. T. Ripberger, C. Silva, and H. Jenkins-Smith: The Impact of Increased Lead Time in Response to Tornadoes. 100th AMS Annual Meeting, January, 2020, Boston, Massachusetts. See PDF here.

M. J. Krocak , J. T. Ripberger, W. Wehde, J. Allan, C. Silva, and H. Jenkins-Smith: The Waiting Game: The Impact of Watch-Scale Lead Time on Protective Action in Response to Tornadoes. 99th AMS Annual Meeting, January, 2019, Phoenix, Arizona. See PDF here.

** M. J. Krocak and H. E. Brooks: Developing and Testing Watch-Scale Forecast Products in the FACETs Paradigm. 29th Conference on Severe Local Storms, October, 2018, Stowe, Vermont. See PDF here.

** indicates award winning presentation

For more information, see Kenzie’s online research profile.